Cleveland Browns’ fans went from the embarrassment of always losing, to the embarrassment of failed expectations, to the embarrassment of the Deshaun Watson contract.
Aside from being a serial creep, Watson is an elite quarterback talent when on his game, and has much more around him in terms of talent and coaching in Cleveland than he did when piggybacking Houston to the playoffs all those years.
As of this writing, Watson will serve an 11-game suspension and all the legal sparring has had the Browns’ NFL odds in flux, with futures shifting since the spring and spreads and totals now finally reflecting the situation at quarterback.
What kind of product will the Factory of Sadness be pumping out this season? We find out in our Cleveland Browns 2022 betting preview.
(Editor’s Note: This preview was updated to reflect the news of Watson’s 11-game suspension. It reflects those changes to Cleveland’s futures and lookahead lines.)
Cleveland Browns futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +4,000 |
| To win conference | +2,000 |
| To win division | +490 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 8 (Over -130) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +220 / No -260 |
Best futures bet: None
I’m not a big futures fan to start with, but I couldn’t imagine tying up any amount of money worth a wager on a team as volatile as the Browns. Even knowing Watson will be out for 11 games, more could unfold before we even get to his Week 13 return.
I do believe Cleveland can start the season relatively unscathed without Watson under center and a 5-1 straight up record heading into a Week 7 battle with Baltimore wouldn’t shock me, considering the company Cleveland keeps in the first two months. But the second half of the season is incredibly tough.
This team won eight games with a broken Baker Mayfield under center in 2022 and five of those were one-score games, including a Week 18 victory against Cincy’s skeleton crew. With Watson out until November 27, the Browns’ QB situation sinks below that of 2021 and upon his return, Watson is met with a home stretch that features very stingy defenses (Bucs, Bengals, Ravens, Saints and Steelers).
Cleveland Browns betting overview
What will win bets: Pass defense
The Browns’ stop unit ranked out seventh in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA vs. the pass and owned the sixth-lowest success rate allowed per dropback in 2021. Cleveland should continue to stymie rival air attacks with lethal pass rushers in Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney keeping QBs up at night. The Browns finished with 42 sacks (10th-most) despite only blitzing on 22% of dropbacks.
If the defensive line can cause chaos and force opposing passers to hurry up, they’ll play into one of the better secondaries in the league, despite only 14 INTs last year. Cleveland is loaded with talent in the defensive backfield, headlined by Denzel Ward, Greedy Williams, and Greg Newsome.
While the start of the season sees a series of paltry passers on deck, the second half of the season presents an uptick in QB quality. Limiting those foes will be vital to Cleveland covering the spread week to week.
What will lose bets: Quarterback quandry
On top of the dark cloud hovering over everything the Browns do in 2022, the Watson acquisition leaves QB play up in the air — even when Deshaun makes his regular-season debut.
Jacoby Brissett is the No. 1 for the first 11 games (if he lasts that long), leaving Cleveland to go conservative with a healthy dose of the run (with or without Kareem Hunt?) protecting a passer who won’t challenge defenses downfield. Opponents may stack the box and beg the Browns to beat them over the top.
And when Watson does return, the market will likely overreact, and present point spread value on some very good teams facing Cleveland in the final third of the season. Chopping up the lookahead lines against divisional foes, you can see a four to five point bump for the Browns with Watson in. He’ll will be working his way into a new offense, clamoring for chemistry with new receivers and taking on some vaunted pass rushes most weeks.
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Cleveland Browns game-by-game odds
Take 2 for this Browns preview gives us a full slate of lookahead lines now that we know Cleveland will not only miss Watson for the first six outings but not have him available until Week 12. If we take these revamped lookahead lines for face value, bookies have the Browns in line to win eight games — smack on the nose of their adjusted win total — facing a standard SOS rated T-17th and my QB SOS of 18th.
With Brissett at quarterback, Cleveland will be a favorite in four of the first six games and truly could be 5-1 SU in that span — with the biggest challenge coming vs. L.A. in Week 5. The Browns open with four of six at home, including their three toughest foes coming to Cleveland: Steelers, Chargers, and Patriots. That said, in two years under Kevin Stefanski, the Browns are 6-11 against the spread as hosts.
Things get tougher from Week 7 to Week 11. Cleveland plays three of four games on the road, has a bye in Week 9, and caps the Watson suspension with back-to-back road games at Miami and Buffalo. With Watson available (who knows what will be going on by late November?) the Browns are favorites in five of the final seven games but books are being cautious with Cleveland, even pegging it a modest -6 when visiting Watson’s former team in Week 13.
| 1 | @ Carolina | +1 | 41.5 |
| 2 | vs. N.Y. Jets | -6 | 42 |
| 3 | vs. Pittsburgh | -4 | 42.5 |
| 4 | @ Atlanta | -3.5 | 45 |
| 5 | vs. L.A. Chargers | +3.5 | 47.5 |
| 6 | vs. New England | -1 | 42.5 |
| 7 | @ Baltimore | +7 | 43.5 |
| 8 | vs. Cincinnati | +3 | 44.5 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | @ Miami | +4.5 | 45 |
| 11 | @ Buffalo | +9.5 | 47 |
| 12 | vs. Tampa Bay | +3.5 | 48 |
| 13 | @ Houston | -6 | 47 |
| 14 | @ Cincinnati | +1.5 | 47 |
| 15 | vs. Baltimore | -1 | 45 |
| 16 | vs. New Orleans | -3 | 44 |
| 17 | @ Washington | -3 | 43.5 |
| 18 | @ Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 40.5 |
Cleveland Browns pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
There are limited markets available to bet, but Browns U9.5 was a bigger play for me when it was available, and U8.5 might still be worth a look. I have them power rated two points worse than an average team with Brissett at quarterback.
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