Everton s appeal against their 10-point deduction for financial breaches is unlikely to be overturned, according to football finance expert Dan Plumley.
The Toffees received the heaviest points deduction in Premier League history earlier this month, leaving them in the relegation zone after they were found to have broken the league s profit and sustainability rules, spending £19.5m over the allowed limit across four seasons between 2018 and 2022.
The club is appealing the ruling, looking to use mitigating factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the war between Ukraine and Russia, which led to the cut of financial ties with Alisher Usmanov, a commercial partner of the club.
However, Plumley believes even if Everton s appeal is successful, the deduction is more likely to be reduced than overturned, telling Stats Perform: I think there s going to be mitigation and proportionality. Those are the things that Everton are focusing on.
The best-case scenario of course is it gets overturned. But I get the feeling that we re probably not in that particular line of thought at the minute. You are looking at a reduction on appeal and a link to some of these mitigating circumstances.
I get the sense that it will go down that road of an appeal and you’re probably looking to get this reduced in the first instance. I think to get it overturned is a bit of a stretch based on where we are with some of those other factors as we ve said, but we ve not seen the appeal yet.
Many Everton fans feel the club is being harshly set as an example, with the Premier League coming down especially hard on the Toffees because of the plans for an independent regulator to come in.
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Plumley agrees that Everton s penalty is somewhat of a tipping point, explaining: Because there s been that notion of perhaps there was never going to be a punishment for breaking these restrictions, it does feel like a watershed moment.
We ve never seen the Premier League deduct points for these profit and sustainability regulations, and that s part of the backstory here and some of the wider narrative that we need to be aware of. There is no precedent, there is no benchmark.
This is the first points deduction link to these regulations. It is the only one of its kind. And I think that s interesting given the fact that we ve had 10 years of these regulations within that league, and this is the first time that a sanction has been met.
The commission that dished out the ruling stated Everton did not breach the rules to gain a sporting advantage , though that a sporting advantage had to be inferred by the fact that Everton had overspent.
They successfully staved off the drop last term, but sides such as Leeds United and Leicester City, who both went down at Everton s expense, are now reportedly set to sue the Toffees in response to the deduction.
Plumley believes this raises an important point, saying: Of course, Everton didn t want to be in relegation battles in the last few years and probably wanted to be higher up in the table.
But that notion of sporting advantage can have different connotations depending on the level and I think that s where the compensation challenges from the likes of Burnley, Leeds, Southampton and Leicester become interesting because then we re talking about a sporting advantage that is maybe the difference between staying up or not.
We might not see that necessarily see that as a sporting success, but it might be termed as a sporting advantage over other clubs.
Everton fans protested the decision by holding up pink banners, bearing the Premier League emblem and the word Corrupt , during Sunday s 3-0 loss to Manchester United at Goodison Park.
Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and an Evertonian, has claimed there was an abuse of process during the case.
Burnham accused the Premier League of regulatory malpractice for attempting to introduce a sanctions policy specific to Everton s case during the disciplinary process.
