We re going Under some alternate totals in the Steelers vs Bills and Eagles vs Bucs, Over an alternate total in Browns vs Texans and adding some points to the Rams to make them +11.5 for out Wild Card Weekend teasers picks. This comes out to +110 odds at DraftKings.
NFL Wild Card Teaser Picks
I ve created this teaser by choosing alternate spreads and totals at DraftKings. But you should be able to do so at most . Though some books may not allow for as much movement in the lines as DK.
Browns vs Texans
Pick: Over 33
These teams have opposite Over/Under records with the Browns being tied for the highest amount of Overs at 11-6, and Houston also owning an 11-6 record but to the Under.
The total in this game is set at 44.5 and that s a total that Browns games have gone over in each of their past three (45, 57 and 58). But they ve also gone over that number in 5/6.
For Houston, their only game in their past six that has gone over 44.5 is their game with the Browns in Week 16, 36-22. Those Texans points came in garbage time when the game was out of hand, but still, they put up 22 points without CJ Stroud. He s back here and will surely make this game more competitive this time around.
The Browns may be 1st in yards allowed per game but their defense has been poor on the road giving up 26, 38, 24, 31, 29, 36, 22 and 31 points. Those numbers alone would come close to going over an alternate total of 33.
Texans games have gone over 33 at a 14-2-1 rate this season.
Steelers vs Bills
Pick: Under 45.5
I m going to double dip in this game and use it in the teaser picks as well. While I think Buffalo wins, it could be close. The Bills are 0-8 ATS as double-digit favorites and 0-4 this season. Maybe Pittsburgh covers. The Steelers in a teaser at say +20.5 is also an option. Pittsburgh had a couple of heavy defeats earlier this season by 23 and 24 points but haven t lost by more than 17 points since October 1.
But let s focus on the total. It s sunk from 42.5 to 35.5. That s because of the weather that is calling for low-20s, snow, 25 mph winds and up to 50 mph wind gusts.
That surely disrupts both offenses and could lead to more rushing, less points and maybe some turnovers that stall out drives. Pittsburgh already runs the seventh-fewest plays per game and Buffalo could be without WR Gabe Davis to injury.
Let s bump this total back up to even higher than what it started at to 45.5 and hope the elements muck this game up and cause an Under.
Rams vs Lions
Pick: Rams +11.5
Once again, a second pick on a game in this column. I think the Rams are a good ATS pick on their own and offer good Wild Card upset potential, so add a whole bunch of points in teaser picks and I m all in. The Rams are 10-7 and let s look at those losses. They ve come by 7, 3, 9, 7, 23, 17 and 6 points.
The 23-point loss was in Dallas where everyone loses and saw Stafford leave injured giving way to Brett Rypien. Rypien played the next game as well which resulted in a 17-point loss in Green Bay.
LA is rested, the Lions just struggled to put away the Vikings in Week 18 while Nick Mullens threw for almost 400 yards and they ve lost TE Sam LaPorta to a knee injury.
Even if I m wrong with the upset potential, Rams won t get blown out.
The have a lot of key injuries heading into their Monday Night matchup on weekend. joined on to talk all the injuries and what he s most concerned about.
VSiN (@VSiNLive)
Eagles vs Buccaneers
Pick: Under 55.5
The Eagles have been more of an Over team this season at 9-8. The Bucs have been more of an Under team at 11-6.
It was ages ago, but when these teams played earlier this season and in Tampa, it was an Under, with Philly winning 25-11. That total was set in a similar range at 44.
The Eagles have seen several games get into the 40s, 50s and higher in recent weeks with scores totalling 37, 66, 58, 37, 46, 61, 71, 38, 51, 69 and 48 in their past 11 games.
Bucs games have not hit such highs as often with their games finishing with 9, 36, 42, 54, 54, 39, 47, 41 and 26 points in their past nine games.
Both starting quarterbacks are dealing with injuries with Jalen Hurts suffering a finger injury last week and Baker Mayfield just banged up overall with rib and ankle injuries.
But the Eagles offense could also be slowed with each of D Andre Swift, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith dealing with injuries. I see both offfenses struggling so will add some points and take the Under.
NFL Playoffs Teaser Picks: Browns vs Texans Over 33 / Steelers Bills Under 45.5 / Rams +11.5 / Eagles vs Buccaneers Under 55.5 (+110); risk 1 unit at DraftKings
Season record: 17-19, -3.05 units
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