If you like betting on the first touchdown, betting on the result of the first drive pre-game might be another market that interests you. It’s a four-way market with a punt, field goal attempt, touchdown, and turnover, and everything is usually even money or better. I also believe it to be more predictive and a market that has some flaws in the pricing, as well.
For the AFC Championship game, I’m going to go through my process and lay out the best cases for each offense’s first-drive result using the NFL odds from DraftKings and this year’s first-drive stats to reach a best bet. It’s not a massive sample size, but I feel the pricing is nearly all based on the offensive results, leaving some angles that aren’t priced in.
Here are my best free NFL picks for Sunday’s Chiefs and Ravens first drives.
Make sure to also check out our Chiefs vs. Ravens betting preview, AFC Championship props, and Patrick Mahomes spotlight!
Chiefs first drive result
| Punt | +105 | 42% (8/19) | 44% (4/9) | 50% (9/18) | 50% |
| FG attempt | +310 | 32% (6/19) | 44% (4/9) | 22% (4/18) | 20% |
| Touchdown | +285 | 21% (4/19) | 11% (1/9) | 11% (2/18) | 10% |
| Turnover | +650 | 5% (1/19) | 0% | 17% (3/18) | 20% |
Of the four remaining playoff teams, the Chiefs have the highest field-goal attempts per first drive at six of their 19. Four of those have come on the road. This is also an offense that has had much more success in the first half this year than the second half, averaging 6.3 more points in the first 30 minutes, nearly double that of its 2H production.
Andy Reid and the offense are great with early game scripts and their success might not be as well-known as Kyle Shanahan’s and therefore less priced-in. Since the Chiefs’ loss to the Bucs in the 2021 Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes scored a TD on five of his next eight playoff first drives, attempted a field goal twice, and punted just once. The Chiefs have gone seven straight playoff games having scored on the opening possession.
Kansas City is also a deferring team when it comes to the coin toss. That means a win could let its defense force an early punt and set up great field position for the offense. The Chiefs’ defense has the best force-punt rate of the final four teams, at 58% on the season.
M&T Bank Stadium was a loud setting last week and the crowd helped trigger six false starts and a delay of game. It’s also a Baltimore defense that led the league in sacks and allowed just two TDs on the opening drive this year — the best rate of all the four defenses. KC might be able to move the chains, but punching one in will be a challenge, as Baltimore allowed just two opening-drive TDs.
It might be raining but the winds are light, and Harrison Butker was a perfect 7-for-7 from 40-49 yards and hit all five of his attempts from 50-plus. The best side to bet is the field goal attempt, which is +310, implying roughly 24% probable, but closer to 21-22% when accounting for the hold. I could see it being closer to 33% with Reid’s opening script success coupled with their defense that could give them a short field. I want Baltimore to get the opening kick in this scenario.
Chiefs first-drive best bet: Field goal attempt (+310 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
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Ravens first drive result
| Punt | +120 | 44% (8/18) | 22% (2/9) | 58% (11/19) | 33% |
| FG attempt | +340 | 17% (3/18) | 22% (2/9) | 11% (2/19) | 11% |
| Touchdown | +220 | 39% (7/18) | 65% (5/9) | 16% (3/19) | 33% |
| Turnover | +600 | 0% | 0% | 16% (3/19) | 22% |
Although the +220 TD odds here might look appetizing for a Ravens offense that has scored seven first-drive TDs over 18 games, this is a tough matchup with possible rain and a QB that struggles on third and long.
Baltimore was the No.2 scoring offense in football, but Lamar Jackson is easily the worst of the four remaining QBs in terms of success on highly-probable pass plays on third down — basically measuring if he picks up first downs on obvious passing situations on third.
Rotowire’s Jerry Donabedian pointed out in his matchup piece this week that Jackson’s 38.3 success rate in this scenario is close to the league average. The run-heavy offense helps him stay out of the third-and-longs, but if the Chiefs can force one or two on the opening drive, it could be an early punt for this offense, which is paying +120 on Sunday.
The KC defense has the best 1D punt rate of any remaining team at 58% and the rain won’t help the Baltimore passing game either.
I have this at just under a coin flip, and with the markets having about a 14% margin (add all the probabilities from the prices and subtract 100) this +120 is really implying closer to 40% than 46%. I see this as +EV.
Ravens first-drive best bet: Punt (+120 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
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Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2018, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site’s live content lineup.
Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.
Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds. His preferred sportsbook is bet365, which he favors for its extensive range of player prop markets and live betting options.
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